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In order to score profits during the football season, you must be up to date with everything from injuries to weather to the latest ATS trends.
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In order to score profits during the football season, you must be up to date with everything from injuries to weather to the latest ATS trends.
By checking this site throughout the football season, you will be able to stay up to date with all of that information as well as have access to the latest lines and of course in depth analysis on all of the biggest games.
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NFL: Is Super Bowl Pointspread Correct?
2010-02-09
Any coach past or present will tell you the game of football is about two things, blocking and tackling. While that is absolutely true in its simplest form, Super Bowl XLIV is different from the past with the possible exception of just a handful of contests for the Lombardi Trophy. Start with the total of this confrontation, set at 56.5, the highest ever, surpassing the Giants and New England figure of 54 points two years ago. The most recent pointspread shows Indianapolis -4.5, with 67% of the betting action at Sportsbook.com on that side.
After the Colts solved the Jets defense in winning the AFC Championship, most educated oddsmakers were thinking Indianapolis as three-point favorite against the winner of the NFC contest. However, since New Orleans was dominated statistically in their matchup by Minnesota, most thought 3.5 or four points would draw relatively divided action. With roughly 15-20 percent of the dollars wagered on the side of the Super Bowl by this past Sunday, the vast majority of the action had been on Indy, moving them to -5.5 points , but the Dwight Freeney news shoved to number back down to -4.5. In breaking down the two teams, is the number accurate?
Peyton Manning vs New Orleans pass defense
Peyton Manning has arguably been the best quarterback in football the last eight years, except when Tom Brady had a better New England club. The Colts have averaged 283 yards passing against teams that allowed 218, that’s almost a 30 percent difference vs. any defense they have taken on this year. Manning makes uncommon sight adjustments to blitzes and gets rid of the ball quickly. New Orleans on the other hand can be riddled by opposing teams via the pass. Take away games this season in which the Saints faced teams who preferred to run like Carolina, Detroit, Buffalo, Miami and the Jets, and the New Orleans secondary surrendered 277.6 yards in the 12 other contests or roughly what the Colts totaled all season. Granted, some the yardage allowed was after New Orleans had built big leads in several early games, but there were a number of late season contests in which they were also torched.
Nobody in football makes better in-game adjustments than Manning and his offensive coordinator Tom Moore and nobody this season did a better job in stopping opposing teams by forcing turnovers than the Saints. Defensive coordinator Greg Williams is on record as saying how they attacked Brett Favre is similar to how they want to get after Manning. The Jets had Darrelle Revis to at least take away Reggie Wayne and they did a good job in limiting Dallas Clark. It does not appear Manning will face those same obstacles against Saints secondary.
Spread Differential – Indianapolis -7
Drew Brees vs Indianapolis pass defense
Drew Brees might not have All-Pro type receivers like Manning has in Wayne and Clark; however he has a stable that any Kentucky thoroughbred barn would be proud of. No team in professional football had a more diverse passing attack than New Orleans. The Saints had seven different players catch 35 balls or more during the regular season. Coach Sean Payton has set up his offense very much like a basketball team that has both exceptional depth and the skill to score points. Only Manning has the ability to scan the field as quickly to find an open receiver as Brees, who also has keen understanding of taking what the offense gives as well as wanting to dictate the tempo to keep the defense guessing. The Colts are better equipped to limit or contain the New Orleans passing game. Bookend defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can bring a heap of trouble off the edges. Freeney in particular is going to demand a double team, unless his troubled ankle proves otherwise, as normal backup tackle Jermon Bushrod is not equipped to make this a solo project. Mathis’ edge over right tackle Jon Stinchcomb isn’t as definitive; just the same the Colts DE is the better player. Antoine Beathea is an emerging star at safety for the Colts, with the rest of the secondary somewhat dependant on what happens up front.
Spread Differential – New Orleans -3
Indianapolis running game vs. New Orleans front seven
For two teams in the Super Bowl, this is one area that is about as unusual as you will find. The Colts running game is reminiscent of Bill Walsh’s and Joe Montana’s first winning Super Bowl team from the 1982 season. The 49ers were a pure passing team and ran the ball just to give the defense something to preoccupy from time to time. The Indianapolis front office had not been impressed with Joseph Addai since they won the Super Bowl in 2006 season and drafted Donald Brown from Connecticut. Addai doesn’t hit the edges as well on the stretch plays, working better between the B-gaps and making cuts. Indy posts a laughable 3.5 yards per carry against teams that permitted 4.1. The offense line seldom gets a chance to go out and drive block, however does appear less potent in this aspect of the game from the Super Bowl team from three years ago. Beyond Sedrick Ellis, the Saints defense front absorbs more punishment than it creates. New Orleans gives up 4.6 yards per carry, since their linebackers lack extensive speed to quickly fill gaps. It would seem Indianapolis could do business here, but has shown no inclination to commit to the run, rushing over 100 yards twice on last 12 contests. Expect the Colts to be satisfied carrying the ball their usual 23 times and leave it to their MVP to close the deal.
Spread Differential – Even
New Orleans running game vs Indianapolis front seven
Besides turnovers, if the Saints are going to upset the Colts, this is where it has to come from. Guards Carl Nicks, Jahri Evans and center Jonathan Goodwin must have special day opening up holes for Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Saints coach Payton needs to show restraint here and get physical upfront with the Colts. Gouging the Indianapolis defense for four to five yards a pop opens up tight end Jeremy Shockey and slot receiver Robert Meacham in the passing game. Payton may try the screen game, however few have had success against linebackers Clint Session, Gary Brackett and safety Beathea, who can all run and are sure tacklers. Instead, as part of the running game, they should include trips (three receiver sets) to the short side of the field, with Bush standing behind them and sending him into motion to the wide side of the field, hopefully drawing a linebacker. This gets Bush in the open field for essentially a screen pass or comeback slant route underneath with blockers, more or less a run play in the Saints’ offense.
Spread Differential – New Orleans -1
Special Teams
Reggie Bush gives the Saints a home run hitter in returning punts, however the way to stop him is what Minnesota did, have the punter sacrifice a few yards to increase kick coverage and get right in his grill upon the catch. Indianapolis continues to spend little time in this area and is strictly run of the mill. Where the Colts have edge is at place-kicker. Matt Stover came in when Adam Vinateri was injured. The 42-year old Stover will be the oldest player ever participate in the Super Bowl and has 20 years experience, including being the Ravens kicker during the 2001 Super Bowl campaign. Stover’s range is limited to about 45-yards, especially outdoors and has made 80 percent (20 of 25) of field goals in his postseason career. Kicker Garrett Hartley is young enough (23) to conceivably be Stover’s son. Hartley has made 24 of 26 field goals in his two years, but the pressure is all together different on the game’s biggest stage. Plus, Hartley has kicked in a dome the last two seasons and realistically is untested, though his game winner over Minnesota was impressive.
Spread Differential – Indianapolis -1
Coaching
It would seem these two coaches couldn’t be any more different with each facing unprecedented scrutiny for the first time. Jim Caldwell, to the chagrin of his team, gave up a 14-0 season and a chance for perfection to be in this position and it worked. Caldwell’s strength is in his beliefs and defensive. He altered the mechanics of the Colts defense, still playing a lot of Cover 2, but blitzed twice as much as his predecessor Tony Dungy. With young players at corner due to injuries, he followed the Colts’ ideologies of players expected to step up and perform. He is a low key leader who trusts his assistants and his team.
Sean Payton’s arrival into the NFL showed a fertile offensive mind who couldn’t devise enough trick plays and use them quickly enough. Like many great offensive teams, the coach and quarterback become one on various levels and Payton has trusted Brees from the beginning. Payton took some lumps the last couple of seasons, which has brought about a new found maturity. As opposed to Caldwell, he embraced the notion of a perfect season when his team was 13-0. He makes no bones about playing to his strength (offense) and turned the defense over this season to Gregg Williams. His biggest task this game is not letting his emotions affect his play calling.
Spread Differential -None
Intangibles
There have been a number of teams that have won their first Super Bowl without having been involved in this maniacal environment, but having the experience is certainly a plus. Teams’ playing in this contest for the first time against experienced foe are desultory 6-11 ATS. Though players say they understand, sometimes its months later in reflection that they realize they were satisfied to make the Big Game as opposed to truly desiring to win it. Payton and Brees have the heart of an assassin, thus their preparation and desire is predicated on going home as champions. The city of New Orleans, with all that has happened once Hurricane Katrina made land, feels like it is playing with house money and welcomes the idea of their football team playing for the city’s first championship, instead of craving it.
The Indianapolis team that was at this same location in 2007 was probably the worst of the four previous (2003-06) Colts playoff teams. That club found a hot rookie running back in Addai and the offensive line got into a bull-dozing mode and they plowed their way to championship. That experience gives the Colts an edge knowing what to expect and what level of performance is necessary. Teams favored by three to six points in this truly American game are 8-2 ATS.
Spread Differential –Indianapolis -3
Bottom Line - Having the best quarterback in the game who doesn’t make many mistakes, a better defense and better than half the roster having Super Bowl experience leads to figure below.
Cumulative Spread Differential – Indianapolis -7
NFL: AFC-NFC Pro Bowl (6:20 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-01-29
The site of the 2010 Pro Bowl has changed, as it will be played at Sun Life Stadium in Miami, as opposed to Hawaii. The timing of the game has also changed, with it being played as a lead-up to the Super Bowl, rather than a follow-up. How does it figure to affect the contest, or the wagering on it? Let’s see if we can dissect it. In any case, the NFC is the 2.5-point favorite at last check, and 84% of bettors at Sportsbook.com apparently feel that is too low. The total is set at 57.
This will be the 40th version of the Pro Bowl, and interestingly, the NFL chose to mark the occasion with some experimentation. The changing of the date was done to promote the Super Bowl week, as opposed to the Pro Bowl being an afterthought it has been in the past.
The problem with the change in most people’s minds is that no members of the Colts or Saints, the league’s two best teams who will meet in Super Bowl XLIV, will be available to play. That fact cost the game 14 players, and the problem was only exacerbated later with regrets by 21 other players who were named to the Pro Bowl but declined due to injuries.
The site change is noteworthy for no other reason than this will be the first time in 31 years that the game will be somewhere other than Honolulu, HI. Not since the 1978 season has the game been played somewhere other than the 50th state, though the game is slated to return to Hawaii for the 2010 and 2011 seasons. It remains to be seen what type of panic might ensue if the elements come into play on Sunday and the field gets torn up for next week’s all-important game.
In terms of who will be manning the sidelines, San Diego head coach Norv Turner and Dallas head man Wade Phillips will guide the AFC and NFC squads. Phillips will be coaching in his first Pro Bowl, while Turner will be presiding over his second. Turner coached the AFC to a 42-30 loss following the 2007 season, when his Chargers lost to the Patriots in the AFC Championship. The two coaches met in the regular season, when San Diego pulled off a 20-17 upset of Dallas on December 13th.
The NFC leads the all-time Pro Bowl series by a 20-19 margin, including wins in the last two games.
The NFC was a 30-21 winner in last year's contest, with Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald earning MVP honors after catching five passes for 81 yards and two touchdowns in the triumph, parlaying his Super Bowl performance of seven catches for 127 yards and two TD’s.
Digging into the game a little bit, with the Saints' Drew Brees and Vikings' Brett Favre unavailable to play, the NFC offense will be guided by quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers of the Packers, Donovan McNabb (3553 passing yards, 22 TD, 10 INT) of the Eagles, and Tony Romo (4483 passing yards, 26 TD, 9 INT) of the Cowboys. Even with the two NFC title game combatants backing out, this is still a star-studded trio. Rodgers, who threw for 4,434 yards and 30 touchdowns against just seven interceptions while leading Green Bay to a playoff berth, will be making his first appearance in the game. The receiving corps will include the Eagles' DeSean Jackson (63 receptions, 9 TD) and Cowboys' Miles Austin (81 receptions, 11 TD), both of whom are expected to start, with the 49ers' Vernon Davis (78 receptions, 13 TD) getting the start at the tight end spot. The Vikings' Adrian Peterson (1383 rushing yards, 18 TD) is expected to open in the backfield one week after his fumble-laden performance in the NFC Championship. The offensive line will be led by Minnesota guard Steve Hutchinson, who makes his seventh consecutive Pro Bowl appearance.
The game will feature a “no-blitz” rule as always, meaning pressure on the passer will have to come from the down linemen. In this case, for the AFC, with would-be starting ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis of the Colts both unavailable due to their Super Bowl commitment, Mario Williams (38 tackles, 9 sacks) of the Texans and Kyle Vanden Bosch (44 tackles, 3 sacks) of the Titans will get the first crack at Rodgers and the NFC quarterbacks. Broncos outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil (41 tackles, 17 sacks), who led the NFL in sacks in 2009, will also be involved. On the back end, a star-studded secondary paced by perhaps the league's top three cornerbacks - the Jets' Darrelle Revis (49 tackles, 6 INT), Raiders' Nnamdi Asomugha (29 tackles, 1 INT) and Broncos' Champ Bailey (61 tackles, 3 INT) - along with starting strong safety Brian Dawkins (95 tackles, 2 INT) of Denver, will focus on slowing the NFC receivers.
Like the NFC, the AFC team will not be without its top QB’s, in this case, three of them. With Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady all unavailable on Sunday, the AFC will go with NFL passing yards leader Matt Schaub (4770 passing yards, 29 TD, 15 INT) of the Texans, with the Titans' Vince Young (1879 passing yards, 10 TD, 7 INT) and Jaguars' David Garrard (3597 passing yards, 15 TD, 10 INT) both backing him. Young will be appearing in his second Pro Bowl game, after making it as a rookie in 2006. Houston's Andre Johnson (101 receptions, 9 TD) and Denver's Brandon Marshall (101 rushing yards, 10 TD) will open at wideout for the AFC, with the Chargers' Antonio Gates (79 receptions, 8 TD) starting at tight end. Among the notable reserve pass-catchers is the Bengals' Chad Ochocinco (72 receptions, 9 TD), who makes his sixth Pro Bowl appearance. A standout AFC backfield will include NFL Offensive Player of the Year Chris Johnson (2006 rushing yards, 50 receptions, 16 TD) of the Titans, along with the diminutive Maurice-Jones Drew (1391 rushing yards, 53 receptions, 16 TD) of the Jaguars and Ray Rice (1339 rushing yards, 78 receptions, 8 TD) of the Ravens. Jets guard Alan Faneca and Titans center Kevin Mawae, who now have 17 Pro Bowl appearances between them, anchor the line.
The NFC will look to pressure the AFC quarterbacks with Vikings end Jared Allen (43 tackles, 14.5 sacks), Panthers end Julius Peppers (36 tackles, 10.5 sacks) and Cowboys outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (47 tackles, 11 sacks). Their defensive backfield features Asante Samuel (43 tackles, 9 INT) of the Eagles and Terence Newman (61 tackles 3 INT) of the Cowboys, in addition to safety Nick Collins (47 tackles, 6 INT) of the Packers. The linebackers are headed by 49ers middle man Patrick Willis (113 tackles, 3 INT), among others.
Prediction: On paper, you certainly have to like the QB rotation of the NFC much better than that of the AFC, with Rodgers, Romo, and McNabb all capable of lighting up the scoreboard. That said, the AFC defensive backfield is one of hall-of-fame credentials and certainly won’t make things easy. With the total set at 57 for this contest, we’ll go with a rare predcition of an UNDER in the game, with the NFC pulling it out 24-20.
NFL: Early Super Bowl Preview
2010-01-26
The Super Bowl matchup is set, with Indianapolis and New Orleans getting two weeks to prepare for their championship showdown in Miami. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have already weighed in on their thoughts, installing the Colts as 4-point opening line favorites. That number has since moved to 5.5-points, with Indy getting about 64% of the action according to the BETTING TRENDS page. Read on for a quick look at the backdrop surrounding Super Bowl XLIV and stick with Sportsbook.com from now till kickoff of the big game for more great coverage.
Peyton Manning survived an early knockout attempt by the Jets, guided the third-biggest comeback in AFC Championship Game history—11 points—and shredded Gang Green’s No. 1-ranked defense in the process. The NFL’s regular season Most Valuable Player threw for 377 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-17 victory that ended far better than it started.
The Colts scored the game’s final 24 points and routinely made big plays against a New York defense that rarely allowed them through its first 18 games. Manning completed five throws of at least 20 yards and turned the tide with a four-play, 80-yard drive late in the second quarter that cut the 11-point deficit to just 17-13 at halftime. Head coach Rex Ryan’s team never recovered.
New Orleans proved to be equally resilient despite being dominated in almost every aspect of last Sunday’s NFC Championship Game by Minnesota, including total yards (475-257) and time of possession (36:49-27:56). The Saints squeaked by the Vikings, 31-28 in overtime, to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.
Along with Manning, Super Bowl XLIV also features the runner-up in the NFL MVP race, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, who finished the regular season with 34 touchdowns and has added six more in two postseason victories. There are few differences between the two signal-callers, other than Manning’s overwhelming postseason experience. The Colts quarterback is now 3-2 in AFC title games (9-8 overall) and looks to win his second Super Bowl title in the last four seasons.
Regardless of who’s in the huddle, the two quarterbacks never lack confidence in flinging the ball around. Against the Jets, Manning’s top targets, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, who each had at least 100 catches and 1,000 yards receiving during the regular season, combined for seven grabs and 90 yards. So, he turned to second-year wideout Pierre Garcon (11 catches, 151 yards, one touchdown) and rookie Austin Collie (7, 123, 1). Brees spread the ball around to eight different receivers, three of whom scored in the NFC title game.
The overall series between the teams is tied at 5-5, but the Colts have won the last two meetings, the most recent a 41-10 blowout in 2007.
PREDICTION
There’s no question Manning can keep up with Brees in a shootout. What is an issue is whether or not his defense can do enough to slow New Orleans down. The Colts knocked off a pair of run-oriented offenses (Ravens and Jets) in their first two playoff games, but the well-balanced Saints present a far bigger problem. NEW ORLEANS 38, INDIANAPOLIS 32
NFL: NY JETS at INDIANAPOLIS (3:00 PM ET, CBS)
2010-01-22
Rex Ryan’s Jets’ team has gone from #5 seed to a step away from the Super Bowl by virtue of two road playoff wins. The only thing standing in the way now of his potentially prophetic prediction is a victory in Indianapolis. Certainly that is no small task, though New York accomplished that exact feat four weeks ago to end the Colts’ bid at a perfect season. Indianapolis of course, pulled many its starters in the second half of that game to the dismay of fans, bettors, and experts alike. In this week’s AFC title rematch, the Colts will play at full strength for the full 60 minutes, and are consequently listed as an 8-point favorite, and getting the backing of over 60% of bettors at Sportsbook.com.
The reason for the controversial move by HC Jim Caldwell was to get to this point with his team’s health and eventual goal intact, that being a trip to Miami and Super Bowl XLV. His club is the AFC’s #1 seed, and playing for the conference championship for the first time in three years, coincidentally, the last time they took home the Lombardi Trophy, also from Miami. The Colts, led by NFL MVP Peyton Manning, have been opened as 7.5-point favorites, but strangely for a 14-win club, haven’t been favored by more than a TD since November 8th. They are just 4-5 ATS at home this season and 8-14 ATS in their L22 as hosts. However, Indianapolis is on a 21-9 ATS run at home vs. good defensive teams yielding 17 PPG or fewer, and is facing a second straight playoff opponent who could be fatigued from consecutive weeks on the road.
The Jets are 7-3 SU & ATS on the road in ’09-10 and come in having won seven of their L8, both SU & ATS. During that stretch, the league’s top ranked rush offense has gained 182.6 YPG on the ground. Nobody believed Ryan a few weeks ago when he said the Jets should be favored to win Super Bowl XLIV, but maybe now it’s officially time to take notice.
The teams have split the last eight head-to-head meetings SU, with the Jets owning a 5-3 ATS edge since ’00. The most recent playoff meeting was in 2003, a 41-0 win by New York at home, a game that still stands as Manning’s worst playoff loss.
Here’s what StatFox’s Steve Makinen had to say about the AFC Title game in the Platinum Sheet…The AFC Championship offers an intriguing rematch of a Week 16 game which unfortunately can’t be used in any meaningful fashion to handicap the current game. Indy’s decision to rest starters in that contest after getting out to a halftime lead puts bettors in an awkward spot here. Obviously we all know that the Jets came back to win that game and haven’t lost since. Whetehr or not we can use the numerous revenge systems listed on FoxSheets remains up for debate. What we don know is this…the NFL’s top ranked defense, playing very well mind you, is squaring off against the league’s best quarterback. That in itself makes this a memorable matchup. Who has the edge though? In most cases, I would say the defense, but when that defense is accompanied by a rookie quarterback on the other side of the ball, I become a little more hesitant. I don’t believe the Jets are going to be able to play as conservatively as they did last week vs. the perennially playoff choking Chargers, although I believe that is how they will play. At points much earlier in the game, Mark Sanchez is going to have to make plays. Indy’s defense looked solid itself last week, is a playoff tested unit, and its stats are marred somewhat by the late season dive the team took. Take a look at the system: Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 9 points or less last game. (29-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 2*). When it’s all said and done, I am uncomfortable going with the short end of the QB mismatch in such a big game. I could see a 20-3 type of game like last week, or a 20-17 OT affair. Either way, I’d feel more comfortable putting my money on the total. UNDER.
Play: Jets-Colts UNDER 40.5
NFL: Can the Jets and Vikings win on the Money Line?
2010-01-21
Both New York and Minnesota are road underdogs in the Conference Championships on Sunday, yet each in their own way has proven to be a valuable play for the sports bettor. The postseason tournament has revisited yesteryear this season, as the two top seeds from each conference advanced to the conference titles games for the first time since 2004. However, if history has shown us anything, the higher seeded favorite not only fails to cover often in this round, but they lose outright. The last time two top seeds made it to the Super Bowl was the season of 1993. Since that time, on seven different occasions a matchup of the best from the NFC and AFC could have happened and not once did this occur. Betting on No.1 leaves a nasty mark at 5-9 against the spread, with seven outright losers, six from the AFC. This means bettors at Sportsbook.com could be in for a healthy return on investment in back one or both of the underdogs.
Confident New York rolling
The Jets are the bigger underdog at 7.5-points at Sportsbook.com and are +280 on the money line. Indianapolis has nobody to blame but itself for ending up with this opponent who really believes in itself. The Colts pulled many of the their top players against the Jets in Week 16 and New York stormed to a 26-6 second half, providing the momentum they needed to start winning. Make no mistake, coach Rex Ryan has this team believing they are every bit as good as the 85’ Bears and ‘00 Ravens, both defensive-oriented teams that won Super Bowls.
In analyzing the rosters of the two teams, take away Peyton Manning; a case could be made the Jets have a better starting roster. The Colts offensive line is merely average with Indy have no running game to speak of, saved by Manning’s ability to get rid the ball. No doubt Manning has the skill to pick apart any defense, but this is a unique Jets D, who creates relentless pressure from every angle imaginable and whose job this week is to make Manning miserable, leading to bad throws and possible picks.
The Jets are going to run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, as the duo, behind a talented offensive line, averages 4.5 yards per carry on 38 attempts per contest. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has played smartly in recent weeks and his confidence has been growing, and he has been making better throws especially once the second half arrives.
NFL playoff football has evolved into getting hot at the right time. The Flyboys have won and covered seven of eight and aren’t worried about playing a third straight game on the road, the Giants and Steelers have won Super Bowls in the last four years doing so.
Strong defensive teams allowing 14-18 points per game, against teams that allow 18 to 23 points per contest, after allowing 17 points or less in three straight times, are 44-18 on the money line.
Minnesota is Favre-ulous
It was a little shocking to see New Orleans as four-point favorites over Minnesota, since the Vikings appear to have a decidedly better defense. That said the Vikings have not been nearly as good away from the Metrodome this season, with a .500 record SU and ATS and haven’t won or covered a road game since Nov. 1 in Green Bay (0-3).
It would be foolish to dismiss Minnesota since this team is right where many thought they would be dating back to the middle of October. Brett Favre has been amazing. Scrap the grayish beard and flecks on the dome, he looks every bit the player that went to consecutive Super Bowls in the mid-90’s. Gone are the days of just throwing it up for grabs, simply testing his arm and coaches patience, trying to play Mission Impossible plays.
While New Orleans has offensive weapons all over the field, the Minnesota crew is hardly second-rate. Receivers like Sidney Rice are explosive and rookie Percy Harvin is a ticking time bomb that could detonate at any time. The Vikings offensive line and Adrian Peterson have seen a number of different defensive schemes, all designed to stop A.P.; nonetheless they have to be encouraged with the Saints permitting 4.6 yards per carry.
The strength of Minny’s defense is not in the secondary, however if the Vikings defensive line plays the same as they did against Dallas, it won’t matter again. Minnesota has four legitimate run stoppers and pass rushers on every play. The affects of defensive pressure have been on display in eight playoff games and if they can shake up Drew Brees, the possibilities start to open up.
This is the moment Favre yearned for and no doubt wants retribution for the NFC title game failure while with Green Bay two years ago. Teams that average 7.3 or more yards per pass attempt, against average passing defense (5.9-6.7 YPPA), after gaining eight or more passing yards an attempt in two straight games, are 37-12 on the money line the last five seasons. At +160, the Vikes are worth serious consideration.
NFL: NY JETS vs. SAN DIEGO (4:30 PM ET, CBS)
2010-01-15
The NFL’s version of the “Final Four” will be set following the last playoff matchup of the weekend from San Diego, where the red-hot Chargers will entertain the almost-as-hot Jets. The hosts opened as 9-point favorites at Sportsbook.com, but cooler heads have since prevailed and the pointspread now reads San Diego -7. That price seems to have done its job of balancing the betting action, as the BETTING TRENDS page shows 51% of players supporting the favorites, and 49% on the side of the dogs.
The Jets won their playoff game at Cincinnati with the same recipe that has defined their season, controlling the offensive line of scrimmage and dominant defense. It will take that and more to pull a second straight upset at San Diego. The Chargers have won 11 straight games and no team is hotter, particularly offensively, as they scored 20 or more points in every game. The Jets were held below that mark on seven occasions, thus will be looking to keep the scoring down on Sunday. HC Norv Turner owns a 9-2 ATS mark as home chalk of 7.5-14 points in his stay at San Diego. New York is 6-3 SU & ATS on the road and last won in San Diego in the ’05 wildcard round, 20-17.
Of the four teams to earn a first-round bye in this year’s playoffs, it can be argued none is more deserving than San Diego. The Chargers, winners of four straight AFC West titles, take an 11-game win streak into Sunday’s divisional round playoff game against the New York Jets at Qualcomm Stadium.
Gang Green earned this cross-country trip with a 24-14 victory in Cincinnati, marking its second win over the Bengals in six days. Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez (12-for-15, 182 yards, one touchdown) and rookie running back Shonn Greene (135 yards rushing, one touchdown) starred for rookie head coach Rex Ryan, who praised the efforts of kicker/punter Jay Feely (one field goal, three extra points, three punts inside the 20) in his post-game news conference.
No disrespect to the Bengals, but the road for the Jets gets a lot tougher now.
Head coach Norv Turner’s team hasn’t been saddled with a loss since Oct. 19 when it came up short at home on Monday night against Denver and fell three-and-a-half games behind the Broncos. Six days later, the Chargers spanked Kansas City by 30 in Arrowhead and were well on their way.
San Diego is 3-3 in the playoffs over the last three seasons with an appearance in the AFC Championship Game two years ago and is as talented as any of the remaining clubs.
Is it time for Turner and Philip Rivers to get over the hump? There isn’t much more for Rivers to do except win a ring. Since taking the reins of San Diego’s offense from Drew Brees in 2006, he’s passed for an average of 3,700 yards per season with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 105-to-44. He’s facing a New York defense that ranked atop the league in passing yards (153.7 per game) and passing scores allowed (eight) and held Cincinnati to 110 net yards passing in the last two weeks.
The key matchups to watch are Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis against Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson and New York’s ground attack against San Diego’s shaky—20th-ranked—run defense. Jackson has a six-inch height advantage on Revis, but he sat out the regular-season finale against Washington with a sore Achilles’ and will have a tough time winning the duel at less than 100 percent.
PREDICTION: The Chargers scored at least 20 points in every regular-season game and averaged 30 during the current winning streak. Turner doesn’t have the best January resume, but there’s no debating which of these teams has more horses in the barn. Throw in some jetlag and Sanchez & Co. really have their work cut out.
SAN DIEGO 24, N.Y. JETS 13
NFL: Is Super Bowl Pointspread Correct?
2010-02-09
Any coach past or present will tell you the game of football is about two things, blocking and tackling. While that is absolutely true in its simplest form, Super Bowl XLIV is different from the past with the possible exception of just a handful of contests for the Lombardi Trophy. Start with the total of this confrontation, set at 56.5, the highest ever, surpassing the Giants and New England figure of 54 points two years ago. The most recent pointspread shows Indianapolis -4.5, with 67% of the betting action at Sportsbook.com on that side.
After the Colts solved the Jets defense in winning the AFC Championship, most educated oddsmakers were thinking Indianapolis as three-point favorite against the winner of the NFC contest. However, since New Orleans was dominated statistically in their matchup by Minnesota, most thought 3.5 or four points would draw relatively divided action. With roughly 15-20 percent of the dollars wagered on the side of the Super Bowl by this past Sunday, the vast majority of the action had been on Indy, moving them to -5.5 points , but the Dwight Freeney news shoved to number back down to -4.5. In breaking down the two teams, is the number accurate?
Peyton Manning vs New Orleans pass defense
Peyton Manning has arguably been the best quarterback in football the last eight years, except when Tom Brady had a better New England club. The Colts have averaged 283 yards passing against teams that allowed 218, that’s almost a 30 percent difference vs. any defense they have taken on this year. Manning makes uncommon sight adjustments to blitzes and gets rid of the ball quickly. New Orleans on the other hand can be riddled by opposing teams via the pass. Take away games this season in which the Saints faced teams who preferred to run like Carolina, Detroit, Buffalo, Miami and the Jets, and the New Orleans secondary surrendered 277.6 yards in the 12 other contests or roughly what the Colts totaled all season. Granted, some the yardage allowed was after New Orleans had built big leads in several early games, but there were a number of late season contests in which they were also torched.
Nobody in football makes better in-game adjustments than Manning and his offensive coordinator Tom Moore and nobody this season did a better job in stopping opposing teams by forcing turnovers than the Saints. Defensive coordinator Greg Williams is on record as saying how they attacked Brett Favre is similar to how they want to get after Manning. The Jets had Darrelle Revis to at least take away Reggie Wayne and they did a good job in limiting Dallas Clark. It does not appear Manning will face those same obstacles against Saints secondary.
Spread Differential – Indianapolis -7
Drew Brees vs Indianapolis pass defense
Drew Brees might not have All-Pro type receivers like Manning has in Wayne and Clark; however he has a stable that any Kentucky thoroughbred barn would be proud of. No team in professional football had a more diverse passing attack than New Orleans. The Saints had seven different players catch 35 balls or more during the regular season. Coach Sean Payton has set up his offense very much like a basketball team that has both exceptional depth and the skill to score points. Only Manning has the ability to scan the field as quickly to find an open receiver as Brees, who also has keen understanding of taking what the offense gives as well as wanting to dictate the tempo to keep the defense guessing. The Colts are better equipped to limit or contain the New Orleans passing game. Bookend defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can bring a heap of trouble off the edges. Freeney in particular is going to demand a double team, unless his troubled ankle proves otherwise, as normal backup tackle Jermon Bushrod is not equipped to make this a solo project. Mathis’ edge over right tackle Jon Stinchcomb isn’t as definitive; just the same the Colts DE is the better player. Antoine Beathea is an emerging star at safety for the Colts, with the rest of the secondary somewhat dependant on what happens up front.
Spread Differential – New Orleans -3
Indianapolis running game vs. New Orleans front seven
For two teams in the Super Bowl, this is one area that is about as unusual as you will find. The Colts running game is reminiscent of Bill Walsh’s and Joe Montana’s first winning Super Bowl team from the 1982 season. The 49ers were a pure passing team and ran the ball just to give the defense something to preoccupy from time to time. The Indianapolis front office had not been impressed with Joseph Addai since they won the Super Bowl in 2006 season and drafted Donald Brown from Connecticut. Addai doesn’t hit the edges as well on the stretch plays, working better between the B-gaps and making cuts. Indy posts a laughable 3.5 yards per carry against teams that permitted 4.1. The offense line seldom gets a chance to go out and drive block, however does appear less potent in this aspect of the game from the Super Bowl team from three years ago. Beyond Sedrick Ellis, the Saints defense front absorbs more punishment than it creates. New Orleans gives up 4.6 yards per carry, since their linebackers lack extensive speed to quickly fill gaps. It would seem Indianapolis could do business here, but has shown no inclination to commit to the run, rushing over 100 yards twice on last 12 contests. Expect the Colts to be satisfied carrying the ball their usual 23 times and leave it to their MVP to close the deal.
Spread Differential – Even
New Orleans running game vs Indianapolis front seven
Besides turnovers, if the Saints are going to upset the Colts, this is where it has to come from. Guards Carl Nicks, Jahri Evans and center Jonathan Goodwin must have special day opening up holes for Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Saints coach Payton needs to show restraint here and get physical upfront with the Colts. Gouging the Indianapolis defense for four to five yards a pop opens up tight end Jeremy Shockey and slot receiver Robert Meacham in the passing game. Payton may try the screen game, however few have had success against linebackers Clint Session, Gary Brackett and safety Beathea, who can all run and are sure tacklers. Instead, as part of the running game, they should include trips (three receiver sets) to the short side of the field, with Bush standing behind them and sending him into motion to the wide side of the field, hopefully drawing a linebacker. This gets Bush in the open field for essentially a screen pass or comeback slant route underneath with blockers, more or less a run play in the Saints’ offense.
Spread Differential – New Orleans -1
Special Teams
Reggie Bush gives the Saints a home run hitter in returning punts, however the way to stop him is what Minnesota did, have the punter sacrifice a few yards to increase kick coverage and get right in his grill upon the catch. Indianapolis continues to spend little time in this area and is strictly run of the mill. Where the Colts have edge is at place-kicker. Matt Stover came in when Adam Vinateri was injured. The 42-year old Stover will be the oldest player ever participate in the Super Bowl and has 20 years experience, including being the Ravens kicker during the 2001 Super Bowl campaign. Stover’s range is limited to about 45-yards, especially outdoors and has made 80 percent (20 of 25) of field goals in his postseason career. Kicker Garrett Hartley is young enough (23) to conceivably be Stover’s son. Hartley has made 24 of 26 field goals in his two years, but the pressure is all together different on the game’s biggest stage. Plus, Hartley has kicked in a dome the last two seasons and realistically is untested, though his game winner over Minnesota was impressive.
Spread Differential – Indianapolis -1
Coaching
It would seem these two coaches couldn’t be any more different with each facing unprecedented scrutiny for the first time. Jim Caldwell, to the chagrin of his team, gave up a 14-0 season and a chance for perfection to be in this position and it worked. Caldwell’s strength is in his beliefs and defensive. He altered the mechanics of the Colts defense, still playing a lot of Cover 2, but blitzed twice as much as his predecessor Tony Dungy. With young players at corner due to injuries, he followed the Colts’ ideologies of players expected to step up and perform. He is a low key leader who trusts his assistants and his team.
Sean Payton’s arrival into the NFL showed a fertile offensive mind who couldn’t devise enough trick plays and use them quickly enough. Like many great offensive teams, the coach and quarterback become one on various levels and Payton has trusted Brees from the beginning. Payton took some lumps the last couple of seasons, which has brought about a new found maturity. As opposed to Caldwell, he embraced the notion of a perfect season when his team was 13-0. He makes no bones about playing to his strength (offense) and turned the defense over this season to Gregg Williams. His biggest task this game is not letting his emotions affect his play calling.
Spread Differential -None
Intangibles
There have been a number of teams that have won their first Super Bowl without having been involved in this maniacal environment, but having the experience is certainly a plus. Teams’ playing in this contest for the first time against experienced foe are desultory 6-11 ATS. Though players say they understand, sometimes its months later in reflection that they realize they were satisfied to make the Big Game as opposed to truly desiring to win it. Payton and Brees have the heart of an assassin, thus their preparation and desire is predicated on going home as champions. The city of New Orleans, with all that has happened once Hurricane Katrina made land, feels like it is playing with house money and welcomes the idea of their football team playing for the city’s first championship, instead of craving it.
The Indianapolis team that was at this same location in 2007 was probably the worst of the four previous (2003-06) Colts playoff teams. That club found a hot rookie running back in Addai and the offensive line got into a bull-dozing mode and they plowed their way to championship. That experience gives the Colts an edge knowing what to expect and what level of performance is necessary. Teams favored by three to six points in this truly American game are 8-2 ATS.
Spread Differential –Indianapolis -3
Bottom Line - Having the best quarterback in the game who doesn’t make many mistakes, a better defense and better than half the roster having Super Bowl experience leads to figure below.
Cumulative Spread Differential – Indianapolis -7
NFL: AFC-NFC Pro Bowl (6:20 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-01-29
The site of the 2010 Pro Bowl has changed, as it will be played at Sun Life Stadium in Miami, as opposed to Hawaii. The timing of the game has also changed, with it being played as a lead-up to the Super Bowl, rather than a follow-up. How does it figure to affect the contest, or the wagering on it? Let’s see if we can dissect it. In any case, the NFC is the 2.5-point favorite at last check, and 84% of bettors at Sportsbook.com apparently feel that is too low. The total is set at 57.
This will be the 40th version of the Pro Bowl, and interestingly, the NFL chose to mark the occasion with some experimentation. The changing of the date was done to promote the Super Bowl week, as opposed to the Pro Bowl being an afterthought it has been in the past.
The problem with the change in most people’s minds is that no members of the Colts or Saints, the league’s two best teams who will meet in Super Bowl XLIV, will be available to play. That fact cost the game 14 players, and the problem was only exacerbated later with regrets by 21 other players who were named to the Pro Bowl but declined due to injuries.
The site change is noteworthy for no other reason than this will be the first time in 31 years that the game will be somewhere other than Honolulu, HI. Not since the 1978 season has the game been played somewhere other than the 50th state, though the game is slated to return to Hawaii for the 2010 and 2011 seasons. It remains to be seen what type of panic might ensue if the elements come into play on Sunday and the field gets torn up for next week’s all-important game.
In terms of who will be manning the sidelines, San Diego head coach Norv Turner and Dallas head man Wade Phillips will guide the AFC and NFC squads. Phillips will be coaching in his first Pro Bowl, while Turner will be presiding over his second. Turner coached the AFC to a 42-30 loss following the 2007 season, when his Chargers lost to the Patriots in the AFC Championship. The two coaches met in the regular season, when San Diego pulled off a 20-17 upset of Dallas on December 13th.
The NFC leads the all-time Pro Bowl series by a 20-19 margin, including wins in the last two games.
The NFC was a 30-21 winner in last year's contest, with Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald earning MVP honors after catching five passes for 81 yards and two touchdowns in the triumph, parlaying his Super Bowl performance of seven catches for 127 yards and two TD’s.
Digging into the game a little bit, with the Saints' Drew Brees and Vikings' Brett Favre unavailable to play, the NFC offense will be guided by quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers of the Packers, Donovan McNabb (3553 passing yards, 22 TD, 10 INT) of the Eagles, and Tony Romo (4483 passing yards, 26 TD, 9 INT) of the Cowboys. Even with the two NFC title game combatants backing out, this is still a star-studded trio. Rodgers, who threw for 4,434 yards and 30 touchdowns against just seven interceptions while leading Green Bay to a playoff berth, will be making his first appearance in the game. The receiving corps will include the Eagles' DeSean Jackson (63 receptions, 9 TD) and Cowboys' Miles Austin (81 receptions, 11 TD), both of whom are expected to start, with the 49ers' Vernon Davis (78 receptions, 13 TD) getting the start at the tight end spot. The Vikings' Adrian Peterson (1383 rushing yards, 18 TD) is expected to open in the backfield one week after his fumble-laden performance in the NFC Championship. The offensive line will be led by Minnesota guard Steve Hutchinson, who makes his seventh consecutive Pro Bowl appearance.
The game will feature a “no-blitz” rule as always, meaning pressure on the passer will have to come from the down linemen. In this case, for the AFC, with would-be starting ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis of the Colts both unavailable due to their Super Bowl commitment, Mario Williams (38 tackles, 9 sacks) of the Texans and Kyle Vanden Bosch (44 tackles, 3 sacks) of the Titans will get the first crack at Rodgers and the NFC quarterbacks. Broncos outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil (41 tackles, 17 sacks), who led the NFL in sacks in 2009, will also be involved. On the back end, a star-studded secondary paced by perhaps the league's top three cornerbacks - the Jets' Darrelle Revis (49 tackles, 6 INT), Raiders' Nnamdi Asomugha (29 tackles, 1 INT) and Broncos' Champ Bailey (61 tackles, 3 INT) - along with starting strong safety Brian Dawkins (95 tackles, 2 INT) of Denver, will focus on slowing the NFC receivers.
Like the NFC, the AFC team will not be without its top QB’s, in this case, three of them. With Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady all unavailable on Sunday, the AFC will go with NFL passing yards leader Matt Schaub (4770 passing yards, 29 TD, 15 INT) of the Texans, with the Titans' Vince Young (1879 passing yards, 10 TD, 7 INT) and Jaguars' David Garrard (3597 passing yards, 15 TD, 10 INT) both backing him. Young will be appearing in his second Pro Bowl game, after making it as a rookie in 2006. Houston's Andre Johnson (101 receptions, 9 TD) and Denver's Brandon Marshall (101 rushing yards, 10 TD) will open at wideout for the AFC, with the Chargers' Antonio Gates (79 receptions, 8 TD) starting at tight end. Among the notable reserve pass-catchers is the Bengals' Chad Ochocinco (72 receptions, 9 TD), who makes his sixth Pro Bowl appearance. A standout AFC backfield will include NFL Offensive Player of the Year Chris Johnson (2006 rushing yards, 50 receptions, 16 TD) of the Titans, along with the diminutive Maurice-Jones Drew (1391 rushing yards, 53 receptions, 16 TD) of the Jaguars and Ray Rice (1339 rushing yards, 78 receptions, 8 TD) of the Ravens. Jets guard Alan Faneca and Titans center Kevin Mawae, who now have 17 Pro Bowl appearances between them, anchor the line.
The NFC will look to pressure the AFC quarterbacks with Vikings end Jared Allen (43 tackles, 14.5 sacks), Panthers end Julius Peppers (36 tackles, 10.5 sacks) and Cowboys outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (47 tackles, 11 sacks). Their defensive backfield features Asante Samuel (43 tackles, 9 INT) of the Eagles and Terence Newman (61 tackles 3 INT) of the Cowboys, in addition to safety Nick Collins (47 tackles, 6 INT) of the Packers. The linebackers are headed by 49ers middle man Patrick Willis (113 tackles, 3 INT), among others.
Prediction: On paper, you certainly have to like the QB rotation of the NFC much better than that of the AFC, with Rodgers, Romo, and McNabb all capable of lighting up the scoreboard. That said, the AFC defensive backfield is one of hall-of-fame credentials and certainly won’t make things easy. With the total set at 57 for this contest, we’ll go with a rare predcition of an UNDER in the game, with the NFC pulling it out 24-20.
NFL: Early Super Bowl Preview
2010-01-26
The Super Bowl matchup is set, with Indianapolis and New Orleans getting two weeks to prepare for their championship showdown in Miami. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have already weighed in on their thoughts, installing the Colts as 4-point opening line favorites. That number has since moved to 5.5-points, with Indy getting about 64% of the action according to the BETTING TRENDS page. Read on for a quick look at the backdrop surrounding Super Bowl XLIV and stick with Sportsbook.com from now till kickoff of the big game for more great coverage.
Peyton Manning survived an early knockout attempt by the Jets, guided the third-biggest comeback in AFC Championship Game history—11 points—and shredded Gang Green’s No. 1-ranked defense in the process. The NFL’s regular season Most Valuable Player threw for 377 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-17 victory that ended far better than it started.
The Colts scored the game’s final 24 points and routinely made big plays against a New York defense that rarely allowed them through its first 18 games. Manning completed five throws of at least 20 yards and turned the tide with a four-play, 80-yard drive late in the second quarter that cut the 11-point deficit to just 17-13 at halftime. Head coach Rex Ryan’s team never recovered.
New Orleans proved to be equally resilient despite being dominated in almost every aspect of last Sunday’s NFC Championship Game by Minnesota, including total yards (475-257) and time of possession (36:49-27:56). The Saints squeaked by the Vikings, 31-28 in overtime, to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.
Along with Manning, Super Bowl XLIV also features the runner-up in the NFL MVP race, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, who finished the regular season with 34 touchdowns and has added six more in two postseason victories. There are few differences between the two signal-callers, other than Manning’s overwhelming postseason experience. The Colts quarterback is now 3-2 in AFC title games (9-8 overall) and looks to win his second Super Bowl title in the last four seasons.
Regardless of who’s in the huddle, the two quarterbacks never lack confidence in flinging the ball around. Against the Jets, Manning’s top targets, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, who each had at least 100 catches and 1,000 yards receiving during the regular season, combined for seven grabs and 90 yards. So, he turned to second-year wideout Pierre Garcon (11 catches, 151 yards, one touchdown) and rookie Austin Collie (7, 123, 1). Brees spread the ball around to eight different receivers, three of whom scored in the NFC title game.
The overall series between the teams is tied at 5-5, but the Colts have won the last two meetings, the most recent a 41-10 blowout in 2007.
PREDICTION
There’s no question Manning can keep up with Brees in a shootout. What is an issue is whether or not his defense can do enough to slow New Orleans down. The Colts knocked off a pair of run-oriented offenses (Ravens and Jets) in their first two playoff games, but the well-balanced Saints present a far bigger problem. NEW ORLEANS 38, INDIANAPOLIS 32
NFL: NY JETS at INDIANAPOLIS (3:00 PM ET, CBS)
2010-01-22
Rex Ryan’s Jets’ team has gone from #5 seed to a step away from the Super Bowl by virtue of two road playoff wins. The only thing standing in the way now of his potentially prophetic prediction is a victory in Indianapolis. Certainly that is no small task, though New York accomplished that exact feat four weeks ago to end the Colts’ bid at a perfect season. Indianapolis of course, pulled many its starters in the second half of that game to the dismay of fans, bettors, and experts alike. In this week’s AFC title rematch, the Colts will play at full strength for the full 60 minutes, and are consequently listed as an 8-point favorite, and getting the backing of over 60% of bettors at Sportsbook.com.
The reason for the controversial move by HC Jim Caldwell was to get to this point with his team’s health and eventual goal intact, that being a trip to Miami and Super Bowl XLV. His club is the AFC’s #1 seed, and playing for the conference championship for the first time in three years, coincidentally, the last time they took home the Lombardi Trophy, also from Miami. The Colts, led by NFL MVP Peyton Manning, have been opened as 7.5-point favorites, but strangely for a 14-win club, haven’t been favored by more than a TD since November 8th. They are just 4-5 ATS at home this season and 8-14 ATS in their L22 as hosts. However, Indianapolis is on a 21-9 ATS run at home vs. good defensive teams yielding 17 PPG or fewer, and is facing a second straight playoff opponent who could be fatigued from consecutive weeks on the road.
The Jets are 7-3 SU & ATS on the road in ’09-10 and come in having won seven of their L8, both SU & ATS. During that stretch, the league’s top ranked rush offense has gained 182.6 YPG on the ground. Nobody believed Ryan a few weeks ago when he said the Jets should be favored to win Super Bowl XLIV, but maybe now it’s officially time to take notice.
The teams have split the last eight head-to-head meetings SU, with the Jets owning a 5-3 ATS edge since ’00. The most recent playoff meeting was in 2003, a 41-0 win by New York at home, a game that still stands as Manning’s worst playoff loss.
Here’s what StatFox’s Steve Makinen had to say about the AFC Title game in the Platinum Sheet…The AFC Championship offers an intriguing rematch of a Week 16 game which unfortunately can’t be used in any meaningful fashion to handicap the current game. Indy’s decision to rest starters in that contest after getting out to a halftime lead puts bettors in an awkward spot here. Obviously we all know that the Jets came back to win that game and haven’t lost since. Whetehr or not we can use the numerous revenge systems listed on FoxSheets remains up for debate. What we don know is this…the NFL’s top ranked defense, playing very well mind you, is squaring off against the league’s best quarterback. That in itself makes this a memorable matchup. Who has the edge though? In most cases, I would say the defense, but when that defense is accompanied by a rookie quarterback on the other side of the ball, I become a little more hesitant. I don’t believe the Jets are going to be able to play as conservatively as they did last week vs. the perennially playoff choking Chargers, although I believe that is how they will play. At points much earlier in the game, Mark Sanchez is going to have to make plays. Indy’s defense looked solid itself last week, is a playoff tested unit, and its stats are marred somewhat by the late season dive the team took. Take a look at the system: Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 9 points or less last game. (29-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 2*). When it’s all said and done, I am uncomfortable going with the short end of the QB mismatch in such a big game. I could see a 20-3 type of game like last week, or a 20-17 OT affair. Either way, I’d feel more comfortable putting my money on the total. UNDER.
Play: Jets-Colts UNDER 40.5
NFL: Can the Jets and Vikings win on the Money Line?
2010-01-21
Both New York and Minnesota are road underdogs in the Conference Championships on Sunday, yet each in their own way has proven to be a valuable play for the sports bettor. The postseason tournament has revisited yesteryear this season, as the two top seeds from each conference advanced to the conference titles games for the first time since 2004. However, if history has shown us anything, the higher seeded favorite not only fails to cover often in this round, but they lose outright. The last time two top seeds made it to the Super Bowl was the season of 1993. Since that time, on seven different occasions a matchup of the best from the NFC and AFC could have happened and not once did this occur. Betting on No.1 leaves a nasty mark at 5-9 against the spread, with seven outright losers, six from the AFC. This means bettors at Sportsbook.com could be in for a healthy return on investment in back one or both of the underdogs.
Confident New York rolling
The Jets are the bigger underdog at 7.5-points at Sportsbook.com and are +280 on the money line. Indianapolis has nobody to blame but itself for ending up with this opponent who really believes in itself. The Colts pulled many of the their top players against the Jets in Week 16 and New York stormed to a 26-6 second half, providing the momentum they needed to start winning. Make no mistake, coach Rex Ryan has this team believing they are every bit as good as the 85’ Bears and ‘00 Ravens, both defensive-oriented teams that won Super Bowls.
In analyzing the rosters of the two teams, take away Peyton Manning; a case could be made the Jets have a better starting roster. The Colts offensive line is merely average with Indy have no running game to speak of, saved by Manning’s ability to get rid the ball. No doubt Manning has the skill to pick apart any defense, but this is a unique Jets D, who creates relentless pressure from every angle imaginable and whose job this week is to make Manning miserable, leading to bad throws and possible picks.
The Jets are going to run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, as the duo, behind a talented offensive line, averages 4.5 yards per carry on 38 attempts per contest. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has played smartly in recent weeks and his confidence has been growing, and he has been making better throws especially once the second half arrives.
NFL playoff football has evolved into getting hot at the right time. The Flyboys have won and covered seven of eight and aren’t worried about playing a third straight game on the road, the Giants and Steelers have won Super Bowls in the last four years doing so.
Strong defensive teams allowing 14-18 points per game, against teams that allow 18 to 23 points per contest, after allowing 17 points or less in three straight times, are 44-18 on the money line.
Minnesota is Favre-ulous
It was a little shocking to see New Orleans as four-point favorites over Minnesota, since the Vikings appear to have a decidedly better defense. That said the Vikings have not been nearly as good away from the Metrodome this season, with a .500 record SU and ATS and haven’t won or covered a road game since Nov. 1 in Green Bay (0-3).
It would be foolish to dismiss Minnesota since this team is right where many thought they would be dating back to the middle of October. Brett Favre has been amazing. Scrap the grayish beard and flecks on the dome, he looks every bit the player that went to consecutive Super Bowls in the mid-90’s. Gone are the days of just throwing it up for grabs, simply testing his arm and coaches patience, trying to play Mission Impossible plays.
While New Orleans has offensive weapons all over the field, the Minnesota crew is hardly second-rate. Receivers like Sidney Rice are explosive and rookie Percy Harvin is a ticking time bomb that could detonate at any time. The Vikings offensive line and Adrian Peterson have seen a number of different defensive schemes, all designed to stop A.P.; nonetheless they have to be encouraged with the Saints permitting 4.6 yards per carry.
The strength of Minny’s defense is not in the secondary, however if the Vikings defensive line plays the same as they did against Dallas, it won’t matter again. Minnesota has four legitimate run stoppers and pass rushers on every play. The affects of defensive pressure have been on display in eight playoff games and if they can shake up Drew Brees, the possibilities start to open up.
This is the moment Favre yearned for and no doubt wants retribution for the NFC title game failure while with Green Bay two years ago. Teams that average 7.3 or more yards per pass attempt, against average passing defense (5.9-6.7 YPPA), after gaining eight or more passing yards an attempt in two straight games, are 37-12 on the money line the last five seasons. At +160, the Vikes are worth serious consideration.
NFL: NY JETS vs. SAN DIEGO (4:30 PM ET, CBS)
2010-01-15
The NFL’s version of the “Final Four” will be set following the last playoff matchup of the weekend from San Diego, where the red-hot Chargers will entertain the almost-as-hot Jets. The hosts opened as 9-point favorites at Sportsbook.com, but cooler heads have since prevailed and the pointspread now reads San Diego -7. That price seems to have done its job of balancing the betting action, as the BETTING TRENDS page shows 51% of players supporting the favorites, and 49% on the side of the dogs.
The Jets won their playoff game at Cincinnati with the same recipe that has defined their season, controlling the offensive line of scrimmage and dominant defense. It will take that and more to pull a second straight upset at San Diego. The Chargers have won 11 straight games and no team is hotter, particularly offensively, as they scored 20 or more points in every game. The Jets were held below that mark on seven occasions, thus will be looking to keep the scoring down on Sunday. HC Norv Turner owns a 9-2 ATS mark as home chalk of 7.5-14 points in his stay at San Diego. New York is 6-3 SU & ATS on the road and last won in San Diego in the ’05 wildcard round, 20-17.
Of the four teams to earn a first-round bye in this year’s playoffs, it can be argued none is more deserving than San Diego. The Chargers, winners of four straight AFC West titles, take an 11-game win streak into Sunday’s divisional round playoff game against the New York Jets at Qualcomm Stadium.
Gang Green earned this cross-country trip with a 24-14 victory in Cincinnati, marking its second win over the Bengals in six days. Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez (12-for-15, 182 yards, one touchdown) and rookie running back Shonn Greene (135 yards rushing, one touchdown) starred for rookie head coach Rex Ryan, who praised the efforts of kicker/punter Jay Feely (one field goal, three extra points, three punts inside the 20) in his post-game news conference.
No disrespect to the Bengals, but the road for the Jets gets a lot tougher now.
Head coach Norv Turner’s team hasn’t been saddled with a loss since Oct. 19 when it came up short at home on Monday night against Denver and fell three-and-a-half games behind the Broncos. Six days later, the Chargers spanked Kansas City by 30 in Arrowhead and were well on their way.
San Diego is 3-3 in the playoffs over the last three seasons with an appearance in the AFC Championship Game two years ago and is as talented as any of the remaining clubs.
Is it time for Turner and Philip Rivers to get over the hump? There isn’t much more for Rivers to do except win a ring. Since taking the reins of San Diego’s offense from Drew Brees in 2006, he’s passed for an average of 3,700 yards per season with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 105-to-44. He’s facing a New York defense that ranked atop the league in passing yards (153.7 per game) and passing scores allowed (eight) and held Cincinnati to 110 net yards passing in the last two weeks.
The key matchups to watch are Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis against Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson and New York’s ground attack against San Diego’s shaky—20th-ranked—run defense. Jackson has a six-inch height advantage on Revis, but he sat out the regular-season finale against Washington with a sore Achilles’ and will have a tough time winning the duel at less than 100 percent.
PREDICTION: The Chargers scored at least 20 points in every regular-season game and averaged 30 during the current winning streak. Turner doesn’t have the best January resume, but there’s no debating which of these teams has more horses in the barn. Throw in some jetlag and Sanchez & Co. really have their work cut out.
SAN DIEGO 24, N.Y. JETS 13